Treasure Economic Signals

As a Treasury as a Service (TaaS) platform, our cash management team pays a lot of attention to the economic environment. We want to share some current macroeconomic insights that CFOs and business leaders can use when planning and optimizing their company finances.

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Treasure Real-time Recession Probability Model

Treasure Recession Probability Model

Comments (December 2022): The probability of recession over the next 12 months has risen from about 60% last month to roughly 90% this month. This is in line with most estimates on Wall Street that a recession will happen in 2023.

Read more about Treasure's data-driven economic indicators in our blog.


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Treasure Technologies Inc.
1324 Clement St
San Francisco, CA 94118
* Returns are projected based on current performance and are gross of fees. Treasure's fee is 35 basis points on Assets Under Management. There is no fee for Treasure Cash. Returns are subject to change daily.

** Treasure Cash accounts are held at Grasshopper Bank, N.A., our FDIC partner bank. Return differentials based on national average checking account rates as of 5/24/2023. Source: FDIC

Website is operated by Treasure Investment Management, LLC ("Treasure"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Treasure Technologies, Inc., and an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). Brokerage services are provided to clients of Treasure by Apex Clearing Corporation ("Apex"), an SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. The contents of this website are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
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* Based on the average annual excess returns of hypothetical back-tested performance of the funds being used in the current Treasure Managed Income portfolio from 2013 to present and the current Federal Funds Rate. (Although Treasure did not exist in 2013, all funds in existence since 2013.). Results are shown net of fees. Hypothetical back-tested performance is not a guarantee of future performance and actual results will vary. Returns are subject to change daily. Source: Bloomberg.

** Treasure Cash accounts are held at Grasshopper Bank, N.A., our FDIC partner bank. Based on national average checking account rates as of 4/17/2023. Source: FDIC.